عنوان مقاله [English]
Crime prediction, by emphasizing the spatial, individual and social criminogenic variables, seeks to adopt preventive approaches and eliminate criminogenic factors. The present study was conducted to evaluate the crime prediction in the light of the Myers-Briggs personality test among all undergraduate law students at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. The data collection tools in this study are the researcher-made questionnaire and the Myers-Briggs questionnaire or MBTI, in which four dual dimensions of personality are considered, including introversion-extroversion, sensing-intuitive, thinking-feeling and judging- Perceiving.The correlation matrix showed that the probability of committing a crime is inversely related to the variables of extroversion, introversion, sensory, intuitive, intellectual and judgmental and is directly related to the perceptual and emotional variables. Examining the effects of personality types in the MBTI questionnaire showed that feeling, intuitive and judging variables can predict crime. The positive coefficient of feeling personality variable in stepwise regression shows that this variable can predict crime. However, the negative coefficient of intuitive and judging personality types indicates that these two personality types can predict not committing a crime. As a result, people with feeling type commit crimes due to emotions and low self-control. On the contrary, rational decision-making, realism and focusing on the truth in people with intuitive and ethical personality type, high self-control and logical decisions in people with judging personality prevent committing crimes.
Crime prediction as a statistical/mathematical concept estimates the probability of committing a crime through the collection and analysis of individual information and demographic variables (Eck et al, 2005: 33). Thus, crime prediction predicts human behavior and estimates the probability of crime by considering various conditions that are effective in committing a crime. Based on this, it should be said that "crime prediction is a branch of futurology that studies hypothetical futures in order to prepare for dealing with criminal behavior" (Gholami and Barzegar, 2017: 10). Since identifying important methods for crime estimation is one of the basic concerns and issues in dealing with crime, today crime prediction is considered as one of the most important tools for identifying dangerous variables and adopting preventive and restorative measures.
The findings of many studies in criminology and criminal psychology have proven the role of personality traits in committing crimes (Barjali and Abdulmaleki, 2013: 58). The psychological findings of criminal behavior also show that many people who have personality disorders and show maladaptive behaviors commit crimes in different situations (Sotoudeh et al., 2014: 81). According to Ising's theory, criminal personality depends on the existence of at least two ability variables, extroversion, psychopathy and psychopathy (Eysenck, 1952: 349). According to some other opinions, on the one hand, psychopathic extroverts, in terms of personality, are the people who have the most criminal talent, and on the other hand, psychopaths are always prone to commit crimes in terms of personality; Because as a result of unknown physiological factors, they become callous, vengeful, callous and unfeeling (Kampen, 2009: 16).
Therefore, considering the important role of crime prediction in identifying risk variables, risk management and adopting preventive mechanisms, and the important effect of personality types on lawfulness or law-breaking of people, this research, while emphasizing on crime risk management and using interdisciplinary approaches, tries to use from the Myers-Briggs personality test and in the form of an experimental study, to examine the relationship between personality types and the likelihood of crime among undergraduate law students of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
This research is descriptive and correlational in terms of applied purpose and method. Correlation research is one of the descriptive research methods that examines the relationship between variables based on the research objective. Therefore, the correlation method is used for the two main purposes of discovering the relationship between variables and for predicting the subject's score in one variable from its scores in other variables. The statistical population of this research is undergraduate law students at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. To investigate the relationship between the Myers-Briggs model theory and its application in predicting crime, the 60-question MBTI questionnaire was used. This questionnaire, which is actually the same questionnaire derived from Myers-Briggs model theory, was presented by these two researchers. Each question contains two propositions to which the respondent chooses the desired answer. In fact, there are no right or wrong answers in the MBTI questionnaire. This questionnaire has been used as a standard and valid global questionnaire in many studies and its validity and reliability have been confirmed. (Harrington and Loffredo, 2001; Steel and Young, 2008; Kim and Hon, 2014; Oh et al, 2007; Rushton et al, 2007) At the same time, to analyze the relationship between personality theory and predicting crime, it is necessary to measure the dangerous state/propensity for crime. be considered; Because the relationship between personality theory and crime prediction cannot be obtained without the criterion of criminal capacity. For this reason, in the questionnaire created by the researcher in ten separate questions, petty crimes such as minor destructions, cheating in the exam, littering, driving without having a valid license, etc. were considered as a measure of criminal aptitude. At this stage, to measure the validity of the researcher-made questionnaire, the opinions of experts and experts were obtained.
3.Results and Discussion
The results show that the dependent variable - committing a crime - with extroversion (-0.038), introversion (-0.104), sensory (-0.050), intuition (-0.152), intellectual (-0.263) variables and judgmental (-0.283) has an inverse relationship and a direct and significant relationship with perceptual (0.152) and emotional (0.141) variables. The significance level for emotional, intuitive and judgment independent variables is less than 0.05 (P-Value<0.05) and as a result, these three variables have the ability to predict crime. The positivity of the coefficient of the emotional variable indicates its positive effect on crime, and the negativity of the intuition and judgment coefficients indicates their negative effect on crime.
Based on statistical findings, in the first step, emotional personality type has a significant positive relationship with crime. The emotional personality approach, which represents the actions of the peripheral nervous system and a reflection of the biological readiness for physical reaction to stressful events (Dosant, 1390: 111), includes features such as temper tantrums, anger, and dissatisfaction. Thus, emotional personality shows the intensity of emotional reactions in forms such as aggression and dissatisfaction. Therefore, emotional personality can be considered aligned with some variables proposed in Pinatel's criminal personality theory. To examine the transition from thought to action, Pinatel believes that each person's personality has five variables, which consists of a central core and four variables. The four variables around the central core are egoism, temper tantrums, aggression and indifference. According to him, when the two or three mentioned variables are formed around the central core, the probability of committing a crime will increase (Najafi Abrandabadi and Hashembeigi, 2017: 105). Therefore, neuroticism, which consists of emotions such as anger, temper tantrums, and selfishness, can be analyzed in the form of Pinatel's criminal personality theory. The correlation matrix of the research variables showed that in the statistical population of the research, the factor of emotional personality has a direct relationship with committing a crime; This means that as people's emotionality increases, the probability of committing a crime increases. However, the important and fundamental point is that in step-by-step regression, the emotional personality approach has the highest power to predict crime. Therefore, in line with many researches in criminal psychology, regarding the statistical population of this research, emotional personality, while being related to crime, can also be effective in predicting crime.
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